Middle East woes create Ag Opportunity
May 2nd, 2011 by Robert SaikThis article highlights a trend I have been following. Declining water resources in the Middle East will mean two things.
1. There are going to be more customers for our Wheat.
2. There will be outsourcing of ag production to other areas of the world to create a “closed loop” system that will give little back to the areas in which the food production occurs.
We have a tremendous opportunity to help meet food demand through our supply and we can help other areas of the world become more sustainable through technology transfer.
After the ‘Arab Spring’
- 28TH APR 2011
In the face of the ‘Arab Spring,’ Lester Brown writing for the Guardian has taken a look beyond the short-term to what faces the Middle East over the medium to long term.
Food security is the hot topic bouncing around the halls of power lately, and with good reason. The world is facing crisis after crisis in matters of sustainability, and population growth is only adding to the problems the world faces. There are solutions which the world knows will work, yet these issues are still pressing and as important as they will ever be.
In the face of the ‘Arab Spring,’ Lester Brown writing for the Guardian has taken a look beyond the short-term to what faces the Middle East over the medium to long term. In his article, he argues that population growth and water supply are on a collision course, and hunger is set to become the main issue after the political uprisings subside. His article is included below.
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Long after the political uprisings in the Middle East have subsided, many underlying challenges that are not now in the news will remain. Prominent among these are rapid population growth, spreading water shortages, and growing food insecurity.
In some countries grain production is now falling as aquifers – underground water-bearing rocks – are depleted. After the Arab oil-export embargo of the 1970s, the Saudis realised that since they were heavily dependent on imported grain, they were vulnerable to a grain counter-embargo. Using oil-drilling technology, they tapped into an aquifer far below the desert to produce irrigated wheat. In a matter of years, Saudi Arabia was self-sufficient in its principal food staple.
But after more than 20 years of wheat self-sufficiency, the Saudis announced in January 2008 that this aquifer was largely depleted and they would be phasing out wheat production. Between 2007 and 2010, the harvest of nearly 3m tonnes dropped by more than two-thirds. At this rate the Saudis could harvest their last wheat crop in 2012 and then be totally dependent on imported grain to feed their population of nearly 30 million.
The unusually rapid phaseout of wheat farming in Saudi Arabia is due to two factors. First, in this arid country there is little farming without irrigation. Second, irrigation depends almost entirely on a fossil aquifer – which, unlike most aquifers, does not recharge naturally from rainfall. And the desalted sea water the country uses to supply its cities is far too costly for irrigation use – even for the Saudis.
Saudi Arabia’s growing food insecurity has led it to buy or lease land in several other countries, including two of the world’s hungriest, Ethiopia and Sudan. In effect, the Saudis are planning to produce food for themselves with the land and water resources of other countries to augment their fast-growing imports.
In neighbouring Yemen, replenishable aquifers are being pumped well beyond the rate of recharge, and the deeper fossil aquifers are also being rapidly depleted. Water tables are falling throughout Yemen by about two metres per year. In the capital, Sana’a – home to 2 million people – tap water is available only once every four days. In Taiz, a smaller city to the south, it is once every 20 days.
Yemen, with one of the world’s fastest-growing populations, is becoming a hydrological basket case. With water tables falling, the grain harvest has shrunk by one-third over the last 40 years, while demand has continued its steady rise. As a result the Yemenis import more than 80% of their grain. With its meagre oil exports falling, with no industry to speak of, and with nearly 60% of its children physically stunted and chronically undernourished, this poorest of the Arab countries is facing a bleak and potentially turbulent future.
The likely result of the depletion of Yemen’s aquifers – which will lead to further shrinkage of its harvest and spreading hunger and thirst – is social collapse. Already a failing state, it may well devolve into a group of tribal fiefdoms, warring over whatever meagre water resources remain. Yemen’s internal conflicts could spill over its long, unguarded border with Saudi Arabia.
Syria and Iraq – the other two populous countries in the region – have water troubles, too. Some of these arise from the reduced flows of the Euphrates and Tigris rivers, which they depend on for irrigation water. Turkey, which controls the headwaters of these rivers, is in the midst of a massive dam building programme that is reducing downstream flows. Although all three countries are party to water-sharing arrangements, Turkey’s plans to expand hydropower generation and its area of irrigation are being fulfilled partly at the expense of its two downstream neighbours.
Given the future uncertainty of river water supplies, farmers in Syria and Iraq are drilling more wells for irrigation. This is leading to overpumping in both countries. Syria’s grain harvest has fallen by one-fifth since peaking at roughly 7m tonnes in 2001. In Iraq, the grain harvest has fallen by a quarter since peaking at 4.5m tonnes in 2002.
Jordan, with 6 million people, is also on the ropes agriculturally. Forty or so years ago, it was producing more than 300,000 tonnes of grain per year. Today it produces only 60,000 tonnes and thus must import over 90% of its grain. In this region, only Lebanon has avoided a decline in grain production.
Thus in the Arab Middle East, where populations are growing fast, the world is seeing the first collision between population growth and water supply at the regional level. For the first time in history, grain production is dropping in a region with nothing in sight to arrest the decline. Because of the failure of governments to mesh population and water policies, each day now brings 10,000 more people to feed, and less irrigation water with which to feed them.
SOURCE: The Guardian
AUTHOR: Lester Brown
Food vs Fuel…new info from Ontario
April 28th, 2011 by Robert SaikThis article sheds some interesting light on the supply of food and fuel through increasing agricultural production. There are some encouraging stats in this article.
GUELPH, ON – A new study released by the Grain Farmers of Ontario should put an end to the ongoing debate of whether the grain we grow should be used for food or fuel. We can and should do both.
The abundance of grain grown by farmers around the world and here in Ontario can both protect the environment and feed the world. As farm yields climb and investments are made in farm production in the developing world, feeding and fueling the world can even be done cost effectively.
“My corn yields have increased by 35 percent since I started farming in 1975,” says Don Kenny who farms just outside of Ottawa and is the chair of Grain Farmers of Ontario. “I am confident that my land will continue to be productive and that new products and technologies will ensure my family supplies our local livestock market and the ethanol plant down the road for many years to come.”
According to the study by Dr. Terry Daynard and KD Communications, by including an average of just 5% ethanol in regular gasoline, Canadians are reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 2.3 million tonnes annually while saving money. Five percent ethanol blending has reduced annual family gasoline expenditures by more than $100 per year. Ethanol is also credited with replacing hazardous compounds in gasoline used for octane enhancement and increasing engine efficiency.
There is also good news for the world’s food supply. Food demands around the world are growing by 1.1% per year according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Fortunately, the Grain Farmers of Ontario study reveals that global grain production has increased by 1.5% per year over the past 20 years. With increasing resources now being directed to agricultural development in some of the world’s hungriest countries, especially in Africa, there is optimism that we will continue to grow the crops and increase production where the need is greatest.
“Quite frankly, it is a relief for us to learn that production of biofuels, like ethanol, here in Ontario makes such a positive contribution to our environment without any notable impact on overall food prices and the world’s ability to supply food,” says Barry Senft, CEO for Grain Farmers of Ontario. “Regardless of this discussion, our farmers are dedicated to growing a sufficient supply of food for Canadian families”.
Source: GFO
The Story of the Pencil
April 13th, 2011 by Robert SaikShare this with your kids, it is why the division of labor works!
And its pretty cool!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L5Lnk1BHzJ8
Enjoy!
THE farming quote
April 12th, 2011 by Robert Saik“We live on the rooftops of a hidden world. Beneath the soil surface lies a land of fascination,And also of mysteries, for much of man’s wonder about life itself has been connected to the soil.It is populated by strange creatures who have found away to survive in a world without sunlight,An empire whose boundaries are fixed by the earthen walls.” Living Earth by Peter Farb, 1959
2012 Nuffield Farming Scholarship Applications Open
April 7th, 2011 by Robert SaikThe Canadian Nuffield Farming Scholarship Trust is accepting applications for their 2012 program. Applications are due by April 30, 2011 and forms can be downloaded from the Nuffield Canada website at http://www.nuffield.ca.
Nuffield Farming Scholarships are awarded to enthusiastic individuals, with a passion for agriculture and a desire to expand your knowledge, pursue new ideas and to share your findings with others. Applicants should be in mid-career, be between the ages of 30 and 45 (although exceptions are made) and must have a minimum of five years agricultural business or farming experience plus the management ability to step away from their current duties. The Scholar must travel for a minimum of ten weeks, with a minimum leg of six consecutive weeks. Scholarships are not for those involved in full-time studies or for the purpose of furthering research projects.
Three scholarships of $15,000 each are available for 2012.
“The Canadian Nuffield Farming Scholarship provides innovative Canadians with the funding to travel internationally to expand their personal horizons while exploring agricultural issues and opportunities in a global context,” said Barry Cudmore, Chair and 2004 Scholar. “We are focused on developing the practical, managerial and commercial capacities of each scholar to enable them to be better farmers and business managers and to make a significant contribution to the future of Canadian agriculture.”
The scholarships are awarded to men and women who are judged to have the greatest potential to create value for themselves, their industries and their communities through the doors which will be opened and the opportunities provided for life-long learning and improvement. The scholarships are awarded on the strength of the applicants’ vision, enthusiasm and determination to pursue their goals.
A Nuffield Farming scholarship is a life changing experience. Scholars receive a ‘golden key’ to the best production, management and marketing systems in every corner of the world. In addition to embracing the ‘world’s best’ in agriculture, scholars gain life-long friends form around the world, and a deep understanding, and global perspective, of the politics, cultures and challenges of world agriculture.
A key part of the scholarship is the opportunity for winners to study a topic of interest to themselves through out their travels. Scholars must complete their project within two years of winning the award and are expected to produce a written report and present their findings at the Nuffield annual general meeting as well as to others in their industries.
Canadian Nuffield Scholars are also required to participate in the Contemporary Scholars Conference (CSC) where they will meet with scholars from other countries including the United Kingdom, Ireland, Australia, New Zealand and France to exchange ideas and experiences, and join a network of people who are at the cutting edge of primary industry. The 2012 conference will be held in Europe.
Applications must be received by April 30, 2011. Application forms are available from the Nuffield website www.nuffield.ca.
For more information on Nuffield Canada, visit www.nuffield.ca or for questions about the international element, visit www.nuffieldinternational.org.
Elston Solberg on the Farmers WANTED Tour
January 17th, 2011 by Robert SaikAgri-Trend Agrology is returning to its’ roots with a prairie-wide Farmers WANTED Tour.
We will be running two consecutive sessions – an Agrology Workshop and a Garden Workshop. Fourteen towns in 14 days, so you can be sure there will be an event near you!
For more information, contact your Agri-Coach or go to www.AGRI-TREND.com/WANTED
Click on the link to hear Ben Cartwright aka Elston interviewed on the Farmers WANTED Tour http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Doik6qPTDdU
Grainews’ Lyndsey Smith has a conversation with Derek Squair of Agri-Trend Marketing Inc
October 29th, 2010 by Robert SaikDerek Squair, president of Agri-Trend Marketing, says there are three things you need to work your grain marketing plan around: cash flow, cash flow and, you guessed it, cash flow. He’s only half serious of course, in that there are several other factors to include in a marketing plan, but mapping out your cash flow needs and pricing the crop to meet them is a good start.
Squair says that when they work with clients to develop marketing plans, they take a step back from cash flow and first look at a farm’s strengths, weaknesses and goals and combine that with risk tolerance to create a one, two and three year plan. “How you market your crop can depend on if you’re planning to grow the farm, hand it over or hold steady,” Squair says. Next, how comfortable you are at forward pricing, hedging or using other marketing tools will shape your marketing plan dramatically.
Then, yes, it’s time to drill down to come up with a very solid cost of production by field — not commodity type, as many farmers do. “(Agri-Trend Marketing) actually uses a cost of production by quarter, not crop type, and have found that there can be drastic differences in the profitability of different fields,” he says. But more than that, Squair says too often farmers underestimate true fixed and variable costs. Every dollar that leaves the farm has to be accounted for if it’s coming out of farm income, he says. And that means hay for the wife’s horse or fuel and food for that annual fishing trip.
“Too often farmers get an unpleasant surprise when they market a crop based on a certain cost of production, only to find the missed ten or twenty dollars per acre in costs,” he says. A profit scenario quickly becomes a break-even scenario, and no one wants that.
Squair encourages farmers to learn to work with marketing strategies, such as hedging, or pass the job on to someone who will. We’ve had these tools for 120 years, but few farmers fully understand how to use them, he says.
He also recommends doing analysis at different points of the year to make sure the marketing plan is working. Did you seed the crops you intended? Did they yield as much as you thought? What quality do you have? Should you be looking at being more or less aggressive in selling? All of these questions need revisiting as the year progresses.
Phil Thomas Inducted into The Alberta Agriculture Hall of Fame
October 4th, 2010 by Robert SaikOn October 1st at a Gala Banquet, “Mr Canola” Phil Thomas was recognized by his peers and colleagues for his life-long devotion to the Agriculture Industry by being inducted into The Alberta Agriculture Hall of Fame.
Celebrating with his family, friends and business associates, Phil expressed his deep love for the industry and how much working in Agriculture has meant to him. “I have been passionate about working in agriculture and helping farmers and have always felt that I got back far more than I put in.” said Thomas, “It has been a pleasure to work with farmers and the ag sector to advance our industry.”
Phil, who had a distinguished career with Alberta Agriculture has spent the last 6 years working with Agri-Trend Agrology Ltd as a Senior Agri-Coach. Phil’s energy is boundless. He wrote and contributed to hundreds of documents, articles, papers and is best recognized for his invaluable leadership in the production of The Canola Growers Manual of which over 30,000 copies have been distributed nationally and internationally.
A energetic speaker and sought after diagnostician, Phil loves to work in the field where he can put his years’ of experience to work. He has taken his knowledge world-wide and was recognized for his international contributions by the People’s Republic of China for work done in that country.
Phil and his wife Elanor still live in their country home near Lacombe, Alberta.
Phil Thomas, canola pioneer – congratulations to your induction to The Alberta Agriculture Hall of Fame!
Stoller celebrates 40 Years
September 27th, 2010 by Robert SaikThis weekend I had the honor of attending Jerry Stoller’s 40th year in business and 75th Birthday. Since 1985, I have been privileged to have this man as a mentor. And while our formal business arrangements ended in 1999, when we began to formally build The Agri-Coach Network, he has always been an inspiration and teacher to me.
Jerry founded Stoller Chemical Company in 1970 at the age of 35 with around $8,000 in his pocket. Today the Stoller group operates in over 55 countries world wide and impacts the lives of millions of people.
In all those years, he has never tired of walking fields, teaching “the language of the plants” and seeking to have a greater understanding about plant genetics and their expression.
I remember in the ’80’s when Jerry came to Alberta and shared his thoughts that there was wide-spread copper deficiency in the province. The “the then experts” basically dismissed his ideas … except for our own Dr. “Copper” Ieaun Evans who went on to prove that Stoller’s observations were correct. Since then copper has proven a God-send on millions of acres across Canada.
He also taught me a lot about fertilizer and we did plenty of work with acid fertilizers and also calcium based liquid fertilizers.
Today, Jerry spends most of his time in the area of plant hormones and helping plants express their true genetic expression.
Jerry, has invented hundreds of products and churned out thousands ideas that have benefited farmers, retails and even his competitors.
I consider it a privilege to know this man and thank him for his contribution to our industry.
It is my hope that his health will allow him to attend The Farm Forum Event in Saskatoon, Nov 16th to 18th and you will have an opportunity to meet with this humble giant who continues to transform our thinking.
Well done Jerry…here’s to the next 40 years!
Your friend
Rob Saik
What should you do with your unseeded acres in 2010?
June 22nd, 2010 by Robert SaikRealAgriculture.com conducted a recent interview with me on the excessively wet spring and the large number of acres that will be left unseeded. Check out the video below, thanks to Realagriculture.com
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